Numbers headed in wrong direction

The target number is 318.

Or 159.

To make things easier, it could be 477.

To complicate them, 786 could replace that top number which in turn would change the third.

Three hundred eighteen is the number of homeless/unsheltered neighbors Chula Vista residents have, according to the 2023 San Diego Regional Task Force on Homelessness census.

The count is conducted in the dark hours of a January morning. In small groups volunteers fan out around communities and cities throughout the county, looking for people who appear to be homeless.

The talliers venture into canyons, parks, alleys, parking lots. Virtually anywhere someone would want to hide from the elements. And danger.

One hundred fifty-nine is the number of people in National City who don’t have a permanent shelter to call home and 477 is the combined totals of both cities.

To gauge if the municipal ties are making headway in addressing the issue residents, civic leaders, and voters need to compare those numbers to the ones that will be reported this year.

Incidentally, that complicator number, 786, is the number of unhoused residents Chula Vista’s Homeless Outreach Team arrived at in their own homeless count. Discrepancies aside, the fact is that whether it’s 786 or 318 the number is too high.

So far, neither of the cities seem to be on the right track.

In 2022 January’s Point in Time count revealed 206 people living on the streets in Chula Vista. In National City there had only been 149.

That’s the wrong direction.

Maybe with Chula Vista’s opening of Pallet Town this year the number of people in need will be diminished. But that makeshift village has been operating at less than capacity since day one.

Also, factor in that San Diego has been forcing their homeless population move elsewhere and it’s a safe bet outlying cities will see a slight increase.

The homeless count probably won’t be out in time for voters to consider by the March primary elections. But they will have those figures on hand by November’s voting.

A candidate’s plan to make those target numbers go—and stay—down should factor into any decisions voters make this year.

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